Ukraine 2010: Were Tymoshenko's Cries of Fraud Anything More than Smoke?

Working Paper No.: 
Date Published: 
Mikhail Myagkov
University of Oregon
Peter C. Ordeshook

Abstract: This paper applies several indicators of fraud to the official precinct level returns of Ukraine‟s 2010 presidential contest – indicators developed and used previously to assess elections in Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan and Venezuela – and compares our findings to the third round of Ukraine‟s 2004 presidential vote. Overall, we conclude that Viktor Yanukovic won a free and fair contest over Yulia Tymoshenko. Indeed, our indicators yield even fewer suspicions in 2010 than they did in 2004, and thus we concur with the opinions of outside observers such as OSCE that neither candidate benefitted from any significant number of suspicious votes or final tallies. Surely there is no evidence to support Tymoshenko‟s post-election assertion that she was denied victory by upwards of a million fraudulent votes.

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