Whose Absentee Votes Are Counted: The Variety and Use of Absentee Ballots in California
Working Paper No.: 34Date Published: 2008-11-30
Author(s):
R. Michael Alvarez, California Institute of Technology
Thad E. Hall, University of Utah
Betsy Sinclair, California Institute of Technology
Abstract:
Absentee voting is becoming more prevalent throughout the United States. While there
has been some research focused on who votes by absentee ballot, little research has
considered another important question about absentee voting: Which absentee ballots are
counted and which are not? Research following the 2000 presidential election has studied
the problem of uncounted ballots for precinct voters but not for absentee voters. Using
data from Los Angeles County–the nation’s largest and most diverse voting jurisdiction–
for the November 2002 general election, we test a series of hypothesis that certain types
of ballots and voters have a higher likelihood that their ballots will be counted. We find
that uniform service personnel, overseas civilians, voters who request non-English ballots
and permanent absentee voters have a much lower likelihood of returning their ballot, and
once returned, a lower likelihood that their ballots will be counted compared with the
general absentee voting population. We also find that there is little partisan effect as to
which voters are more likely to return their ballots or have their ballots counted. We
conclude our paper with a discussion of the implications of our research for the current
debates about absentee voting.