Whose Absentee Votes Are Counted? (April 2004)
Working Paper No.: 6Date Published: 2008-11-30
Author(s):
R. Michael Alvarez, California Institute of Technology
Thad E. Hall, The Century Foundation
Abstract:
Absentee voting is becoming more prevalent throughout the United States. While there has been
some research focused on who votes by absentee ballot, little research has considered another
important question about absentee voting: Which absentee ballots are counted, and which are
not? Research following the 2000 presidential election has studied the problem of uncounted
ballots for precinct voters, but not for absentee voters. To study which absentee ballots are
counted we use data from Los Angeles County – the nation’s largest and most diverse voting
jurisdiction – for the November 2002 general election. We develop three hypotheses regarding
the likelihood that various types of ballots will be counted, which we test with our unique
absentee voting dataset. We find that uniform service personnel, overseas civilians, and
language minority voters have a much higher likelihood that their ballots will not be counted
compared with the general absentee voting population. We conclude our paper with a discussion
of the implications of our research for the current debates about absentee voting.