Policy-Based Abstention in Brazil's 2002 Presidential Election
Working Paper No.: 80Date Published: 2009-04-01
Author(s):
Gabriel Katz, California Institute of Technology
Abstract:
This paper implements a unified model of individual abstention and vote choice to analyze
policy-based alienation and indifference in Brazil’s 2002 presidential election. The
results indicate that both alienation and indifference depressed turnout, with indifference
contributing slightly more to voter abstention. Also, the determinants of alienation and
indifference differed considerably, the former being determined by structural factors such
as voters’ information and perceived efficacy levels, while the latter was related to shortterm
aspects such as parties’ mobilization efforts. More importantly, evidence shows
that while alienation and indifference were strongly influenced by attitudinal and protest
variables, they were also affected by citizens’ evaluation of candidates’ ideological locations.
The main conclusion is that abstention in Brazil’s 2002 election had a policy-driven
component and that spatial considerations played a substantive role in citizens’ electoral
behavior, a fact that has been overlooked in previous research on the determinants of
abstention in Latin America.